Frost & Sullivan expects Malaysia’s total industry volume (TIV) to rebound in 2010 with a 4.5% growth due to an improved economic outlook and rising consumer sentiment. If this forecast proves correct, then this year would see the TIV reaching a new record of 555,000 units.
“Vehicle sales will also be driven by replacement car buyers as a substantial number of Malaysians who purchased their vehicles between 2003 and 2005 may look at replacing their cars in 2010. Prospective buyers who deferred their purchase in 2009 are also expected to replace their cars in 2010 as the economy recovers,” said Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner & Head of the Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan, a Growth Partnership Company which has offices around the world.
He also said that vehicle sales will be aided by the key models launched late last year such as Perodua Alza and Naza-Kia Forte. Proton’s new C/D segment model, scheduled to be launched this year, will also boost vehicle sales growth.
He added that Frost & Sullivan continues to believe that Malaysia’s substantial young population will provide an impetus for vehicle sales growth in the long term. The number of first-time car buyers is also expected to increase in the next few years and this will be a key growth driver for entry-level cars.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that MPVs will be the fastest growth segment, with 12.7% more units sold in this segment compared to 2009 due to the intense competition between the Proton Exora and Perodua Alza.
Passenger car sales are, however, expected to slow down though the segment should still see growth of 3.2%. Mr Mukhtyar attributed this to a lack of new mass market models as well as some passenger car customers opting for the entry-level MPVs. However, passenger cars will still remain as the biggest segment in the industry, accounting for about 75.3%.
Demand for commercial vehicles is expected to increase 5% year-on-year to 52,345 units while 4x4 models are likely to grow by 7.9% to 11,210 units.
Mr. Mukhtyar said there should be continued interest and development in electric vehicles and hybrids by carmakers but is expecting negligible demand by consumers in Malaysia in 2010. As yet, the government has not indicated whether the special incentives for imported hybrid vehicles will continue after December 31, 2010.
While data from the MAA is not available yet, Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle sales in 2009 to end 3.1% lower year-on-year at 531,000 units which is better than its forecast of 501,500 units. “The better-than-expected TIV for 2009 was due to the Malaysian government’s stimulus package, scrapping incentive scheme for Proton and Perodua, and continued strong sales of Perodua’s Myvi and Viva and Proton Saga,” Mr. Mukhtyar said.
He added that the voluntary scrapping incentive softened the downtrend in vehicle sales for 2009; about 31,000 new vehicles were sold in 2009 due to the incentive.
He also noted that vehicle sales in East Malaysia (Sabah & Sarawak) are estimated to have grown by about 3.4% in 2009 as compared to a 4.7% decline in Peninsular Malaysia. “In 2009, the commercial vehicle segment increased 11.5% year-on-year in East Malaysia, reflecting a more robust economy in Sabah and Sarawak due to increased development activities and both states limited exposure to the manufacturing sector,” he explained.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that in 2009, Proton managed to increase its market share by 1.9% due to sales from Exora in the MPV segment. Perodua continued to maintain its pole position in 2009 as Malaysia’s leading carmaker with an estimated 33.4% with Proton following closely behind at 30.4%.
In the non-national car segment, Toyota’s market share is likely to have declined by 4%t to 13.6 per cent in 2009 due to intense competition in the MPV and entry-level mid-sized passenger car segments. Meanwhile, Honda’s market share is expected to have grown by 1.6% to 8.1% due to the new Honda City.